Thursday, April 24, 2008

S&P GSCI INDEX THE 10 year bond

Notice since the crisis last summer these two forces have gone into opposite directions, the question is when will they align again, and who is right.  Arguments are for more inflation, but the problem with this is that we are coming to the end of the global business cycle, also the US went into a recession first, and indicators are pointing to a recession within this year for Europe and Asia should not be far behind.  I would give the GSCI Index more of a favourable outcome, but my own probability indicator point to the bond market has it right.



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These are my own views, please enjoy these insights