Wednesday, April 9, 2008


The deflation/inflation argument will be resolved within 1 year, as the entire prospective developed countries asset prices peak (The longest Kuznets cycle on record) alongside the US.


This will continue to put pressure on the banking system as cascading defaults hit every major country.  Asia, which was the major manufacture, will not be immune, because all credit cycles push forward consumption.


Historical credit cycles typically take a generation (generational cycles 20-25 years)to unwind  At best the developed countries will see an L shaped recovery (it all depends on Asia) or if the demand out of Asia is not enough we will witness an outcome similar to the thirties.


All forward leading indicators including Canada, and Austalia have peaked and are rolling over.  All credit cycles must keep inflating credit growth along with asset inflation or it will contract.




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These are my own views, please enjoy these insights