Saturday, May 31, 2008

S&P Bank Sector

Japan experienced a deflation in recent years because the bursting of its asset-price bubble in the early 1990s created huge losses in its banking system. The Japanese banks had financed the asset-price bubble. When it burst, the debtors could not keep current on their loans to the banks and therefore were forced to turn back the collateral to the banks. The market value of the collateral, of course, was less than the amount of the loans outstanding, thereby inflicting huge losses of capital to the Japanese banks. With the decline in bank capital, the Japanese banks could not extend new credit to the private sector even though the Bank of Japan was offering credit to the banks at very low nominal rates of interest
 
Paul L. Kasriel
 
 
The line in the sand is drawn..
 
How do you answer the probability of this outcome?  Are home prices falling?  Are home prices peaking or rolling over around the world?  Is the recession spreading?  Are the banks tightening lending standards?  Are foreclosures  increasing? Does the commodities blow off help consumers? Are long term indicators pointing up or down?
 
You have got your answer...

Friday, May 30, 2008

S&P GSCI

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_gsci/2,3,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

 

Monthly and daily chart attached,

 

Peak oil is legit; everyone now talks about peak oil, as Don Coxe launches his new fund, as Sprott launches his IPO as macleans magazine covers the Malthusian end of the world thinking, as price are forecasted to go to 150, 200 300 500 dollars a barrel, you know we are near the end… in price

 

Canada GDP/ TSX INDEX

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080530/d080530a.htm

Real gross domestic product (GDP) edged down 0.1% in the first quarter of 2008, its first quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2003. The economy, which had started to lose momentum in the second half of 2007 as exports declined, stalled in the first quarter due to widespread cutbacks in manufacturing, most notably in motor vehicles. In addition, weather disruptions hampered economic activity in the quarter. Economic output contracted 0.2% in March. Final domestic demand advanced 0.6% in the quarter on the strength of consumer spending. Inventory accumulation eased considerably in the first quarter, after two quarters of large build-ups.

The strength in the TSX is solely because of energy, every other sub index is in a downtrend...

Thursday, May 29, 2008

US 10 & 30 Year rates

The long-term trend line is still intact for long-term yields. This higher interest is the last thing the US economy can afford, as you would have the combination of higher commodities prices, higher interest rates, decelerating credit growth, and falling asset values that is toxic to economic growth. This combination is a tsunami of future debt deflation counter to inflation fears around the world

 

On that note, I get quite a bit of emails that inflation is in our future, the point to the shadow statistics numbers. I agree with these numbers, inflation is probably much higher that the governments would let us know.  However, I ask the question, if rates were really reported then the bond market would have taken off which would have not allowed the Real Estate market to blow off which would have not brought us where we are today...

 

I suggest that you look at Asia in the 1997-1998 periods where inflation numbers collapsed within a year… I would suggest that this would be the case as the global recession spreads...  Real Estate is a lagging indicator, so is inflation so is the commodities blow-off...  Do you really believe the economy can grow at all if we get another move of over 20-30% in commodities and or interest rates?

 

Checkmate for the global economy. 

 

UK House prices

 
 
Annualized fall of over 25%
 

Research by Morgan Stanley reveals that countries hosting the Olympics usually enjoy something of a boom in the year leading up to the event, only to be followed by a slump during the following eighteen months. Particularly noticeable downturns were experienced by Australia in 1956, Japan in 1964, the US in 1984 and Korea in 1988. Spain fell into recession the year after their 1992 Olympics, while more recently Athens and Sydney saw some 2 per cent shaved off their growth.

Four major forces are unfolding over the next three years that should line up for a pronounced global slowdown.  One most if not all Real Estate cycles or Kuznets cycles (the longest on record are coming to a close) that propelled most of the artificial demand from the 2000-2008 growth in the world, two China hosting of the Olympics, will be the additional drag on the global economies once it is over this summer, three we are witnessing global tightening not from the central banks but from the market as banks are forced to tighten lending standards, this propelled unsustainable consumer spending, over the past 8 years. And lastly the generational and or baby boomers in the developed west have or are approaching their peak years in spending. These deadly ingredients pose a potential rapid deceleration in a  debt laden global economy forming the potential for an systemic accident in the global economy..

 

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Powerhouse

http://www.powerauthority.on.ca/sop/

http://www.powerhouseprogram.ca/index.htm

Now it's easier than ever to buy and install a renewable energy system for your home. Enersource Hydro Mississauga, Hydro One Networks and Hydro One Brampton Networks are proud to offer zero-interest loans* or rebates through the PowerHouse program.

Customer benefits of PowerHouse Loan

  • Interest free loans to help you overcome the upfront cost of converting to "Renewable Energy"
  • Save thousands of dollars in interest costs with zero-interest loans* – only the principal amount needs to be re-paid
  • Convenient access to financing from your kitchen table
  • Financing amounts from $2,000 up to $50,000
  • Amortization periods of up to 120 months (depending on loan amount)
  • No lien on residence – loans are totally unsecured
  • Quick credit decisions
  • No down payment requirement
  • No hidden application fees
  • Monthly payments as low as $25
  • Flexible repayment options – loans can be repaid in full or partial without penalty
  • Payment through direct debit from customers' Canadian financial institution account

This is what governments do best help speed up with the transition to alternatives and let the market supply the goods.. programs like these are why Germany is one of the global leaders in alternative energy

Bring on the solar revolution

 
Many environmentalists are pessimists and don't believe in technical fixes. But you are a real techno-optimist
 

Yes, because I see the opportunities for renewables. I see that they can provide 100 per cent of our energy, and they can be introduced very fast. All the great technological revolutions happen much more quickly than even the experts and enthusiasts guess. The forecasts for the spread of cell phones and IT were all overtaken by the reality. The renewable revolution will be the same. The IT and mobile phone revolutions were also the first technological revolutions in modern times that were not about centralising power. They were about decentralising. And this will happen to energy from renewables. The big old-fashioned power stations and long supply chains will be replaced by local supplies for local markets. This is changing the tide of history.

 

The decentralizing is extremely important to understand as this will empower everyone to provide there own energy and grow there own food..  counter to the pessimistic misleading ignorant peak everything promoters..  creative destruction at its best

 

 

Checkmate for the global Economy

 

The global business cycle is now caught with two options, try to inflate the commodities cycles is going to kick you in the teeth, deflate you are going to accelerate the deflationary forces from falling asset prices. We have debt levels that are decelerating around the world; we have commodities in the late stage of a blow-off that if they move much higher is going to crimp discretionary demand very quickly. If we get any spike in interest rates, you are going to collapse Real Estate in every major developed market because the consumer is up to their eyeballs in debt.  

 

 The US is in a recession, Europe about to go into a recession, the BRIC countries decelerating very quickly…probably a recession in 2009... Markets have corrected the bear market rally... interest rates are at a critical level, spreads are moving up again..

 

On another note GM has fallen back to the levels of 1982, hopefully there aggressive move to hybrids and plug in electric cars will revive this once great company...

 

 

 

 

 

Solarbuzz Reports World Solar Photovoltaic Market Growth of 62% in 2007

 

Meanwhile, thin film production more than doubled from 181 MW in 2006 to 400 MW in 2007, accounting for 12% of total PV production. 

SA,  First Solar is the leader in this field... and one of the "creative destruction technologies"

 

Solar production grew at 33% per annum prior to 2006, at that pace it would exponentially provide all of the world's electricity in 25 years.  With higher oil and gas prices, that is moving growth rates much higher as expected.  If growth rates sustain at this level 62%, (I expect them to move even higher) then it could provide all of the worlds electricity within 15 years.

 

All the same, time oil prices moved in price 10 times we have seen prices fall for solar and efficiency rates move up.  This is only going to accerlerate more so as the auto industry moves to hybrid and plug in cars.

 

There is a good chance for some great deals on solar over the next 2 years as a huge supply of plants comes on board. It seems certain that within 5 to 10 years, oil, coal, and uranium will price itself out of the market.  This does not cover the exponential growth in CSP, wind, geothermal, tide, and algae.

 

 

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

GLOBAL PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) MANUFACTURING CAPACITY

According to Gaetan Rull, analyst at Yole Developpement, "The production capacity for wafer based solar cells will increase 62% and reach 10GW in 2008." One of the reasons identified by Yole Développement, is the anticipation of the renewed availability of silicon that will start in late 2008 and will drastically increase in 2009-2010. Leaders have succeeded in securing long term supply agreements and want to be ready when poly-Si will be available. Visibility on specific projects is reduced after 2010. Leading cell manufacturers have an-nounced their projects up to 2011 but medium and small companies have not disclosed their plans. Yole is tracking expansion projects on a daily basis and will update production capacities as soon as information is available. Regarding modules activities, Germany, Spain, USA and China are leading and Japan consolidating.
Signet Solar Rolls Out Industry's Largest Silicon Thin Film Solar Photovoltaic Modules

http://www.i-micronews.com/lectureArticle.asp?id=1490

Signet Solar, a manufacturer of silicon thin film photovoltaic modules announced the fabrication of the industry's first ever Gen 8.5 (5.7 m2) silicon thin film solar PV module at its new factory near Dresden, Germany in a record setting ten months from the start of construction.
After finishing construction of the 200,000 square foot production facility in only seven months, Signet Solar completed installation of equipment and started initial fabrication in less than three months. Signet Solar's technology lowers the cost of photovoltaic (PV) modules by combining proven silicon thin film technology, with very large area manufacturing and an industry standard equipment set. The initial modules from the fully automated module manufacturing line met the specification of the product and were confirmed by independent testing by Fraunhofer Institute.

 
The solar revolution continues.. 

China volume exports

 
 
The dominos of a credit contraction is spreading, month by month the numbers are get worse.. all long leading indictors point to this
 
As the ECRI calls it   "pronounced, persistent, and pervasive"  and its global 
 

Bank Of America

The largest commercial bank in the US is clearly pointing to a resumption of the secular bear market, another bellwether GE  week broke the march lows, and both are Dow Jones components…

  

Monday, May 26, 2008

US 30 Year rates

 
The long bond which is most sensitive to inflation continues to fall, the general media and investing public still focuses on inflation but they are missing the big picture.  One global Real Estate value are moving lower and many are accelerating to the downside.  Two Europe, Canada, Australia and soon Asia are in the late stages of the business cycle. And as with all business cycle inflation and commodities are the last to roll over. 
 
Again, until wages move higher much higher we will not have a repeat of the seventies, house value were not deflating, and wages growth were accelerating, wage growth in the most important global economy is moving lower.
 
If by any chance we were to get much higher oil prices much higher interest rates would it not make sense in a debt laden society that this will guarantee a global depression, which then would collapse demand for commodities, we are already witnessing this in North America and Europe, asset deflation will accelerate this until the global consumer repairs there balance sheets. 
 
I am still in the deflation camp until global asset deflation stops.....
 

Saturday, May 24, 2008

US Traffice Volume Trends

http://www.dot.gov/affairs/fhwa1108.htm
The FHWA's "Traffic Volume Trends" report, produced monthly since 1942, shows that estimated vehicle miles traveled (VMT) on all U.S. public roads for March 2008 fell 4.3 percent as compared with March 2007 travel. This is the first time estimated March travel on public roads fell since 1979.
At 11 billion miles less in March 2008 than in the previous March, this is the sharpest yearly drop for any month in FHWA history


http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/08febtvt/08febtvt.pdf

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SDc1Ia_dmdI/AAAAAAAACCI/iBjoNSROKzY/s1600-h/VehicleMiles.jpg



Price is now affecting demand.... Oil prices are now becoming speculative..




Friday, May 23, 2008

Oil and Gas prices

Numbers that I have seen thrown around are that for every .01 cent increase in the price of gas costs the US consumer 1 billion dollars, that's money that would have been spent elsewhere, if you include Canada that would be about $1.1 billion and with Europe that about 2.4 billion dollars. 

 

These prices are finally starting to have an effect on consumption, as we see that numbers for the US could actually fall this year.

 

If we get any more of a spike in oil this year, this will put a nail in the coffin for the global economy...  something has to end the supercycle of debt permanently, since central bankers will not stop the insanity.

 

 

Europe

 
Like dominos the global recession is spreading to Europe as the combination of  a higher Euro, credit deceleration, falling and or peaking Real Estate values, and higher oil and food prices take a toll on the European consumer. 
 
Currently my indicators show that Asia is now decelerating, not enough to affect growth but we shall see that impact within a year... more to come!
 
 
 
 
 

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Global Housing Markets

 
 

US DECLINE IN HOUSE PRICES ACCELERATES

http://www.ofheo.gov/media/hpi/1q08hpi.pdf

Annualized decline of 7%. Systemic

Real Estate prices declines are one of the key ingredients for debt deflation.

Canadian Real Estate

 
It's the biggest investment most of us will ever make -- buying a house. And over the past several years there's been a huge real estate boom. But it appears the boom is over and now the question is -- will we see a bust? Garth Turner is a financial commentator and Member of Parliament. His new book is called Greater Fool: The Troubled Future of Real Estate.
 
Take a look at the chart above, interest rates are at a much lower level than 1989 yet the affordability is plunging.  The prospects for Canadian Real Estate are very poor since the demographics picture also changes over the next five years.
 
I would challenge any Canadian to look at the cost of owning home with a forty year amortization, you are better off renting.  Price gains are decelerating, a high probability for the top in price gains in 2008.
 
 

Global House Prices/Price to rent ratio/ Price to income ratio

Annex Table 60. House price ratios
Long-term average = 100
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
Price-to-rent ratio
United States96.1 93.0 92.0 90.9 89.8 89.4 89.7 90.0 91.6 93.4 96.7 100.6 103.6 108.1 116.4 128.2 134.8
Japan133.3 134.9 125.8 117.3 112.0 108.1 104.5 101.6 99.4 96.3 92.5 88.5 84.5 80.0 75.2 71.7 69.5
Germany92.3 88.6 84.9 83.1 83.1 82.1 81.3 78.6 77.0 74.8 72.5 71.7
France82.8 81.6 81.6 85.9 93.5 100.5 106.1 115.4 129.3 143.9 155.9
Italy93.0 83.2 80.7 82.5 87.1 92.2 98.8 106.0 113.4 119.2 123.7
United Kingdom106.9 95.5 87.1 83.8 82.2 79.7 80.1 85.6 94.3 102.3 116.0 122.6 138.8 157.7 170.1 168.9 164.3
Canada100.7 100.1 102.0 106.2 112.1 104.5 104.8 109.8 109.1 112.4 113.3 115.6 127.4 138.1 150.1 163.6 179.1
Australia91.8 91.1 91.8 93.7 96.4 96.0 93.9 94.8 98.8 103.2 108.4 116.8 135.5 157.2 163.4 162.2 169.3
Denmark78.2 75.9 72.4 69.6 75.9 80.0 87.4 94.9 101.5 105.5 109.4 112.8 113.9 114.5 121.2 139.1 165.8
Spain134.2 140.4 128.8 117.6 113.1 110.9 105.9 104.0 104.0 107.4 111.3 116.9 130.9 150.6 171.2 188.2 198.5
Finland117.6 112.5 124.9 133.0 139.8 144.0 151.4
Ireland45.7 44.7 42.6 46.0 51.2 51.6 59.4 68.1 86.6 120.5 127.8 118.7 132.3 158.4 171.9 179.3 172.9
Korea133.6 132.2 115.1 105.0 99.0 94.6 91.9 91.6 81.3 83.3 85.0 85.0 94.3 99.2 98.1 98.8 103.9
Netherlands71.1 70.1 72.1 74.0 79.2 81.3 87.3 94.6 102.1 115.1 130.2 140.4 147.8 149.9 151.5 154.9 158.4
Norway69.0 67.7 75.7 79.3 85.2 93.0 100.9 108.7 120.8 124.1 124.7 122.2 131.6 139.3 154.4
New Zealand91.7 87.3 88.1 88.5 94.0 96.5 101.6 104.5 100.4 103.1 100.8 103.3 109.6 124.2 137.5 149.2 156.9
Sweden108.6 96.8 81.1 68.3 70.2 68.8 68.6 74.4 83.7 93.0 103.0 108.7 112.8 119.3 130.9 142.7 157.6
Switzerland132.8 118.7 106.2 95.8 95.1 90.4 84.5 81.1 80.4 79.7 79.3 78.6 81.4 83.6 84.5 84.3 84.7
Price-to-income ratio
United States94.6 93.0 90.6 90.3 88.8 87.9 87.6 87.1 86.8 88.0 88.5 92.8 95.8 99.2 103.8 112.7 116.6
Japan118.1 115.5 107.9 101.8 97.6 95.9 95.0 92.2 90.7 88.8 87.2 86.5 82.7 79.6 74.2 70.5 67.5
Germany90.5 88.1 85.1 82.8 81.6 79.5 76.6 74.6 72.4 69.6 67.0 65.7
France85.5 83.9 82.9 86.8 89.7 92.5 96.1 105.2 116.5 130.2 140.4
Italy104.2 103.3 96.5 91.2 82.8 78.2 78.9 82.1 85.9 88.2 93.0 99.7 106.1 111.1 114.6
United Kingdom112.7 101.3 90.4 83.8 83.2 79.2 77.8 79.7 85.5 91.0 99.2 101.0 113.6 126.0 136.4 136.5 140.1
Canada101.9 104.4 104.4 105.2 108.4 100.9 100.5 100.6 96.0 95.8 93.5 94.4 101.4 107.8 113.1 120.2 126.7
Australia98.5 101.1 99.3 98.8 97.3 93.6 90.5 92.6 97.6 100.6 102.1 108.8 126.2 145.3 144.5 139.2 142.6
Denmark81.5 78.8 75.4 74.7 81.2 80.8 87.4 95.8 100.4 108.7 112.5 112.6 113.5 113.3 118.0 134.6 154.4
Spain120.3 123.8 115.2 108.4 107.2 99.4 96.6 96.0 96.5 98.4 99.1 102.7 114.6 131.2 144.4 154.3 158.8
Finland94.0 87.4 92.1 92.7 93.8 97.9 104.3
Ireland84.2 81.2 79.4 75.0 77.7 75.4 79.9 87.6 103.0 118.3 124.4 119.9 123.5 134.7 143.1 147.7 155.4
Korea165.2 148.4 123.6 108.5 91.8 82.6 74.3 71.6 63.2 59.7 58.6 58.8 65.1 68.5 66.0 64.1 64.8
Netherlands70.6 72.1 73.8 80.7 86.6 89.7 96.1 102.0 108.6 122.2 134.8 136.7 145.6 153.3 157.4 163.4 167.2
Norway72.5 69.4 77.4 78.9 82.4 87.2 89.9 96.3 105.0 110.5 106.5 101.3 107.4 109.6 127.6
New Zealand83.1 80.1 82.2 84.1 93.9 96.0 101.9 103.9 98.4 94.4 95.4 92.2 101.8 115.3 132.1 147.7 152.6
Sweden100.9 95.1 82.2 71.9 74.2 72.9 73.5 77.5 82.8 87.2 91.9 91.6 92.9 96.5 103.5 109.9 119.3
Switzerland123.5 113.9 104.8 97.4 96.2 90.0 84.8 81.6 79.3 77.6 74.9 73.2 77.9 79.7 80.5 79.1 78.2
Source: Various national sources and Nomisma, see table A.1 in Girouard, N., M. Kennedy, P. van den Noord and C. André, "Recent house price developments: the role
of fundamentals", OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 475, 2006 and OECD estimates.

Disclaimer

This Global Historical probability model is intended for information only and under no circumstances should items be considered as recommendations to purchase or sell investments.
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the Investment advisor’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the Investment advisor’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, this investment advisor’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. The Investment advisor assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

These are my own views, please enjoy these insights