Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Commodities Indexes

A correction or is the bull market over?  

These targets will be the judge on the outcome of the commodities market.  Clearly, they can correct massively and still be in a bull market.  If this is the greater unwind, then we will see the long-term trend lines broken.


I believe the Chinese Olympics are a watershed moment. Once we confirm that the last superpower is being impacted by the great unwind (fourth quarter this year) then that will last us know that the last of the dominos to fall is here.


If you look at exports to GDP, China is more dependent on the rest of the world for growth, so it would be logical that if your two largest clients are in trouble and getting worse then your own business will be greatly impacted.



Wednesday, August 6, 2008

CRB Index Hong Kong

The break in the CRB INDEX is confirming the global slowdown.  The credit crisis has spread to Asia as Hong Kong M3 contracted 3.8% over the past year. 


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These are my own views, please enjoy these insights