Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Commodities Indexes

A correction or is the bull market over?  

These targets will be the judge on the outcome of the commodities market.  Clearly, they can correct massively and still be in a bull market.  If this is the greater unwind, then we will see the long-term trend lines broken.

 

I believe the Chinese Olympics are a watershed moment. Once we confirm that the last superpower is being impacted by the great unwind (fourth quarter this year) then that will last us know that the last of the dominos to fall is here.

 

If you look at exports to GDP, China is more dependent on the rest of the world for growth, so it would be logical that if your two largest clients are in trouble and getting worse then your own business will be greatly impacted.

 

 
 

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

CRB Index Hong Kong

The break in the CRB INDEX is confirming the global slowdown.  The credit crisis has spread to Asia as Hong Kong M3 contracted 3.8% over the past year. 
 
 
 
 

Disclaimer

This Global Historical probability model is intended for information only and under no circumstances should items be considered as recommendations to purchase or sell investments.
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the Investment advisor’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the Investment advisor’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, this investment advisor’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. The Investment advisor assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

These are my own views, please enjoy these insights