These targets will be the judge on the outcome of the commodities market. Clearly, they can correct massively and still be in a bull market. If this is the greater unwind, then we will see the long-term trend lines broken.
I believe the Chinese Olympics are a watershed moment. Once we confirm that the last superpower is being impacted by the great unwind (fourth quarter this year) then that will last us know that the last of the dominos to fall is here.
If you look at exports to GDP, China is more dependent on the rest of the world for growth, so it would be logical that if your two largest clients are in trouble and getting worse then your own business will be greatly impacted.