Wednesday, April 30, 2008

UK House prices fell for the sixth consecutive month in April

House prices fell for the sixth consecutive month in April

The price of a typical house is now 1% lower than this time last year

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf

 

 

The US Real Estate market is accelerating to the downside. 

 

Bernanke (1983) argued that the reduction in borrower net worth increased the cost of obtaining external finance, while bank failures and tightened credit standards hampered the efficient allocation of capital

 

Today, in the US

 

Banks have watched the value of the assets they hold, especially those that are mortgage related, decline. At the same time, their liabilities do not change. That means erosion in their capital, or assets minus liabilities. When bank capital falls below regulatory minimums relative to assets, financial institutions have to sell assets, which set in motion the kind of downward spiral the Fed was looking to prevent.

 

The UK…

 

Net lending to individuals in the U.K. came in at £8.2 billion in March, compared to £9.6 billion in February. We had expected a decline in net lending to £9.0 billion. Although the Bank of England cut its interest rate three times since November 2007, from 5.75% to 5% in April, lenders are unwilling to pass forward the base rate cuts. Declining house prices and stiff money markets are restraining mortgage demand as well.

 

The sixth largest economy the UK has joined the US, Japan, Germany, Ireland, and Spain in the global Real Estate bust.

Forward indicators point to a recession for Europe by the end of this year, with Asia to follow within 1 year.  A confirmation in the Global Real Estate bust will come from Australia and Canada, which are slowing dramatically.

 

The forces of asset deflation are spreading around the world.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Debt Deflation

Cole and Ohanian (1999) document that U.S. per capita GNP fell 38% below its long-run trend path (of 2% per annum growth) from 1929 to 1933. Real per capita nondurables consumption fell nearly 30%, durables consumption fell over 55%, and business investment fell nearly 80%. On the input side, total employment fell 24% and total factor productivity (TFP) fell 14%. On the nominal and ¯financial side, the GNP deflator fell 24%; per capita M1 (currency plus deposits) fell 30%; M1 velocity fell 32%; the per capita monetary base rose 9%; the currency/deposit ratio rose over 160% (Friedman and Schwartz (1963, Table B3)); the loan/deposit ratio fell 30% (Bernanke (1983, Table 1)); and ex-post real commercial paper rates rose from 6% in 1929 to a peak of 13.8% in 1932.

 

Bernanke (1983) argued that the reduction in borrower net worth increased the cost of obtaining external finance, while bank failures and tightened credit standards hampered the efficient allocation of capital

 

Today, in the US

 

Banks have watched the value of the assets they hold, especially those that are mortgage related, decline. At the same time, their liabilities do not change. That means erosion in their capital, or assets minus liabilities. When bank capital falls below regulatory minimums relative to assets, financial institutions have to sell assets, which set in motion the kind of downward spiral the Fed was looking to prevent.

The UK…

 

Net lending to individuals in the U.K. came in at £8.2 billion in March, compared to £9.6 billion in February. We had expected a decline in net lending to £9.0 billion. Although the Bank of England cut its interest rate three times since November 2007, from 5.75% to 5% in April, lenders are unwilling to pass forward the base rate cuts. Declining house prices and stiff money markets are restraining mortgage demand as well.

 

 

The period from 2000-2007 is an interesting period in that global markets should have rolled over because of the collapse in the stock markets.  That stock market were so overvalued that dividend yields on the Wilshire 5000 fell below 3%, actually 1.65%.  The second part that was different is that for some reason in a secular decline in interest rates, a final rise back to 6% ended all previous historical financial bubbles.  That did not happen this time, what we witnessed back in the 2000-2003 time was a concerted effort to reinflate the global economy.  What was most important is that Real Estate did not roll over as we all know that it went on to its own historical overvaluation that has no historical precedent.

 

The key in the global big picture is that all that liquidity (debt), and that leverage is either 7:1 with banks and with some hedge funds 32:1, so every dollar of contraction or destruction involves selling of seven dollars or assets, or more which then starts the vicious cycle of more ratchet down of assets.  The whole game is to keep growth or more leverage, which is impossible, the complete western world have values overinflated of over 50%. 

 

As the destruction of assets, spread around the world will really see how that no place will be immune to the destruction of assets, what I mean is that there is a decoupling theory that many believe Asia can pick up the baton, Asia exports are much more important that they were back in 2000, the Chinese current account surplus as a percentage of GDP has gone from 2% to 8%, so the US consumer is extremely important to Asia.

 

Most of the whole world’s production, (especially in Asia) is built on current consumption that is artificial; we will witness the collapse in demand that came from asset inflation the so called liquidity (debt)?

 

All bubbles correct to their starting points, meaning as this follows typical patterns, no place in the world will be immune. 

 

 What we will have massive deflation because the purchasing power of the public will not increase fast enough to offset the losses in values, they will be forced to sell assets to cover credit demand, consumption will collapse and corporations will be forced to slash prices as Wal-Mart has.

 

Wilshire 5000 Update

Target area is in green.

 

Thursday, April 24, 2008

S&P GSCI INDEX THE 10 year bond

Notice since the crisis last summer these two forces have gone into opposite directions, the question is when will they align again, and who is right.  Arguments are for more inflation, but the problem with this is that we are coming to the end of the global business cycle, also the US went into a recession first, and indicators are pointing to a recession within this year for Europe and Asia should not be far behind.  I would give the GSCI Index more of a favourable outcome, but my own probability indicator point to the bond market has it right.

 

Friday, April 11, 2008

S&P Bank Sector

Banking sector leading the market lower should break new lows by the end of the month.

We are going to update our recession watch for Europe,  high probability by the second half of this year...

In addition, if this is a typical credit cycle unwind, news should continue to surprise to the downside.

 

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Deflation/Inflation


The deflation/inflation argument will be resolved within 1 year, as the entire prospective developed countries asset prices peak (The longest Kuznets cycle on record) alongside the US.

 

This will continue to put pressure on the banking system as cascading defaults hit every major country.  Asia, which was the major manufacture, will not be immune, because all credit cycles push forward consumption.

 

Historical credit cycles typically take a generation (generational cycles 20-25 years)to unwind  At best the developed countries will see an L shaped recovery (it all depends on Asia) or if the demand out of Asia is not enough we will witness an outcome similar to the thirties.

 

All forward leading indicators including Canada, and Austalia have peaked and are rolling over.  All credit cycles must keep inflating credit growth along with asset inflation or it will contract.

 

 

Debt Deflation

What many economists seemed to have missed is that the cycle from 2000-2007 was as extended credit cycle that pushed forward the Real Estate cycle (Kuznets), that pushed forward consumption.  That moving forward of consumption has benefited Asia tremedously which served as the manufactoring base for most of the world.  China is going to have its two largest clients curtail its consumption patterns over the coming year; as well, its capital investment for the Olympics will soon be over as well as the economic stimulus holding the Olympics this summer.  

 

Long-term leading indicators continue to point to a downturn around the world, as it moves to an L shaped recovery.

 

Surprises are going to continue to point to the downside.

 

Based on historical credit cycles this will take about 20-25 years or a generational cycle to unwind.

 

 

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Australia Debt to GDP Long term View

 

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/KeenDebtWatchNo21April2008.pdf

 

Notice that it takes a generational cycle to correct that debt overhang.

"UK House prices fell by 2.5% in March.

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/08_04_08HousePriceIndexMar2008.pdf

 

The underlying strength for the US is the world economies, which is still growing, if you look at exports, truck tonnage, and the Dow Transports are all holding up relatively well compared to the 2000-2003 downturn. 

 

However, the prospects for the global economy are actually worsening, because they are all approaching their own prospective tops in the Real Estate cycle.  Leading indicators for Europe, Asia and even Canada are turning down; as well, the markets continue to tighten offsetting any monetary easing by the central banks.

Friday, April 4, 2008

Observations

The downtrend is still holding for the Irish market,
 
Interesting that many are surprised with the US job numbers, you have to ask yourself how would you feel if you are the average American.   You are witnessing your home fall in value, your investments fall in value, you are witnessing record prices for fuel, and now food and health care, and the news comes out the unemployment is headed higher.  How would your spending habits change, what will happen to consumer confidence?
 
These are all future deflationary forces on the economy, unfortunately it is spreading around the world. 
 
I don't recall any period in history that had the combination of these forces, at least for Japan they had commodities prices falling even during the thirties commodities prices fell.  I don't know of any period similar to this. 
 

Wilshire 5000 Update

The bottom is in? Once global Real Estate deceleration stops, then that story shall be true.

 

 

Disclaimer

This Global Historical probability model is intended for information only and under no circumstances should items be considered as recommendations to purchase or sell investments.
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the Investment advisor’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the Investment advisor’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, this investment advisor’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. The Investment advisor assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

These are my own views, please enjoy these insights