Monday, May 26, 2008

US 30 Year rates

The long bond which is most sensitive to inflation continues to fall, the general media and investing public still focuses on inflation but they are missing the big picture.  One global Real Estate value are moving lower and many are accelerating to the downside.  Two Europe, Canada, Australia and soon Asia are in the late stages of the business cycle. And as with all business cycle inflation and commodities are the last to roll over. 
Again, until wages move higher much higher we will not have a repeat of the seventies, house value were not deflating, and wages growth were accelerating, wage growth in the most important global economy is moving lower.
If by any chance we were to get much higher oil prices much higher interest rates would it not make sense in a debt laden society that this will guarantee a global depression, which then would collapse demand for commodities, we are already witnessing this in North America and Europe, asset deflation will accelerate this until the global consumer repairs there balance sheets. 
I am still in the deflation camp until global asset deflation stops.....


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These are my own views, please enjoy these insights