Monday, March 17, 2008

Upcoming turn date

The sentiment is extremely negative, the markets are very oversold; technical indicators confirm this, are the market near a bottom.

 

Martin Armstrong turn date is this Saturday March 22 2008, the last turn date was the top for many indexes, (Feb 24 2007), one of them was the SP Banking index. The other index that I follow very closely is the Irish market, the reason is that market was one of the most overvalued that led the stock market and Real Estate market manias, that market is a down over 4% this morning, the chart does not reflect this.

 

I don’t think that this is the bottom, since this is not 2001, 1998 or even 1990, the major differences is that the  credit cycle is unwinding at that won’t end until all global Real Estate values stop falling.

 

This is not just a US problem; this credit cycle mania inflated the most expansive global business cycle in 200 years, the last five-credit cycle manias all ended in deflationary busts.

 

Global Investment cycles

 

 

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These are my own views, please enjoy these insights