It is unlikely that rising commodity prices will lead to a rise in core CPI inflation because manufacturers will be unable to raise prices amidst weak demand. Moreover, the softening job market will help prevent second round effects. Bottom line: Stagflation has returned as a hot word. However, as occurred the last time stagflation had its moment in the limelight in 1990; weak growth will soon undermine pricing power.
The important key to the whole economy is more debt, and that debt must come from lower rates or else stock markets and Real Estate markets will collapse further because of valuation metrics. Based on historical data, it will require coordinated efforts from all central banks to bring short and long-term rates to near zero to have any success in reflation, and it require a willing lender and borrower to facilitate that reflation, or else deflation will become the dominant outcome.
Global Investment cycles