Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Big picture

Leading indicators are accelerating to the downside outside of China.  Lagging indicators are topping here, (CRB index inflation global growth).  I would expect that the hard down phase would occur in the third or fourth quarter.  Oil prices will collapse once it becomes evident that Chinas unsustainable growth is slowing, that would probably be not until the fourth quarter of this year... too much of the current peak oil fears are based on continued growth that would have never occurred outside of the credit cycle. 


The global unwind is accelerating as Canada has now joined the asset deflation game. 


I looked at the current models this morning and there is a high probability of a Fed cut within the week.


A large drop in oil prices along with central banks easing would be good catalysts for this oversold market.





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These are my own views, please enjoy these insights